As there is saying – “No price is too low for a bear or too high for a bull.”
We all know in a bull market there is a strong demand for stocks and this pushes the market up. Similarly, in the Bear market, everything seems negative. There is also sideways where nothing much is happening in the market. It is also called a period of consolidation.
We all have seen Bear and Bull market in following time Horizon:
Period 1: 2055/56 to 2056/57
Period 2: 2060/61 to 2064/65 (5years)
Period 3: 2068/69 to 2072/73 (5 years)
Period 1: 2057/58 to 2059/60(3 Years)
Period 2: 2065/66 to 2067/68 (3 years)
Period 3: From 2073/74
So what is this new animal in the market?
In recent times this animal is brought in the market.
A Kangaroo Market is “A market which hops up and down over a period of time, without any strong uptrend or downtrend”.
In recent times in share market, investors and traders are not in a position to say whether we are in the bull market or still it’s the continuation of the bear market. The market before lockdown could not give clear signals if it is the bull market or the continuation of the bear market. If it is none then we can presume Nepal share market in Kangaroo Stage?
Let us look at some highlights of the Nepal share market in the recent past.
- On 21st Falgun 2075- market made a Low at 1098.95 index on (5th March 2019)
- On 16th Jestha 2076- (30th May 2019) --- Market rose to 1349 levels----At that time too many Analysts were saying it’s the starting of the bull market.
- However, from 16th Jestha 2076 to 9th Mangsir 2076-- Market kept on falling and was making a Lower low. -----during that time Analysts were saying it is the Continuation of the Bear Trend.
- On 9th Mangsir 2076, (25th Nov 2019), the Market found its support at 1110 levels.
- From 9th Mangsir (25th Nov 2019) to 18th Falgun 2076 (1st March 2020) Market started to gain momentum…. Now there was again saying in the market that the bull run has started.
- On 18th Falgun (1st March 2020), the market reached 1667.74 levels and closed at 1591 index…Still, the market perception was bullish at that time.
- From that period onwards the impact of Covid-19 news kept the market falling. Just before the Lockdown period, the NEPSE index has fallen from 1667.74 to 1269.31 levels i.e. 24% in the mere 13 days’ time period. At present, the NEPSE index is 1201.57.
So, looking at all the facts the market has hopped up and down over a period of time, neither giving a confirmation of the bull market and nor of the bear market. It seemly showing the market is in the kangaroo Stage.
Bishal Kumar Agrawal (CA, MBA (Symbiosis))