Weekly Technical Analysis of NEPSE index; Are we at the end of bearish trend? Know the details here

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Fri, Aug 17, 2018 3:01 PM on Featured, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Weekly Analysis,

NEPSE index weekly movement: Market fluctuation were turbulent this week, we saw the huge fall of 16.69 points on the first trading day. On the second day, NEPSE bounces back and gained 10.43 points and on Tuesday NEPSE continues its bullishness and gained 6.61 points. On Wednesday, NEPSE gained a massive 28.73 points that is a highest single-day gain in the last one month. On Thursday, the NEPSE was indecisive however it had managed to form a bullish candle. The index had opened at 1180.63 points this week and closed at 1210.32 points with the gain of 29.69 points (2.5%).

Technical Analysis

Candle Stick Pattern:  On daily candlestick a type of dozi had form which opposes the current market trend and on the weekly candlestick, a bullish candle has formed but the special pattern was not observed.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA): We have use EMA's of 5 days' time period (red line), 20 days' time period (green line) and 180 days' time period (black line).

NEPSE is trading above the 5 days' EMA and 20 days' EMA that means the short-term trend is upward. The 180 days' EMA is above the NEPSE index that means the long-term trend is still bearish.

Another important thing we have noticed this week is the golden crossover, as you can see the red line has crossed the green line from downward. The golden cross-over strongly supports an uptrend. Note that, for the confirmation of mid-term trend NEPSE index have to break the resistance of 1245 points.

Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Band is shown below with the NEPSE index main chart.

The Upper Band and the lower band is expanding that shows the volatility will further increase and soft signal for the uptrend has observed from the Bollinger bands. Bollinger Bands is mainly used for the volatility prediction.

Relative Strength Index: RSI with the NEPSE index main chart is shown below. RSI is above the neutral line of 50 and its value stands at around is 57. The RSI has hit the over-sold position of 30 this week and has bounced back. The strong signal was not observed from the RSI.

Volume chart:   Volume chart is shown below and this week's uptrend was supported by the increasing volume.

When uptrend gets a support from the volume then that trend will be more sustainable.

MACD:  MACD line is shown below with the NEPSE index main chart. MACD line (blue line) is still in the negative zone that means the overall market sentiment is negative. However, the MACD line is above the signal line (red line) which can be taken as the positive signal.

MACD is giving a mixed signal but the more weight is in the uptrend.

Prediction:  Next week we could see a sluggish uptrend.

Support and Resistance

Minor resistance is at the 1230 points and minor support is at the 1200 points. Strong support is in the range of 1170-1130 and strong resistance is in the range of 1244-1285.

Support and Resistance according to Pivot-Point

Pivot Point – 1196.92 points

1st Resistance- 1231.88 points                               2nd Resistance – 1254.45 points

1st Support -    1175.35 points                               2nd Support      - 1140.39 points

This week NEPSE's statistics

Index open- 1180.63 points                     Index closed – 1210.32 points

Index high – 1218.49 points                     Index Low –     1161.96 points

Total Turnover: Rs 1.43 arba

Total Transaction: 22,520

Total Traded shares:  45.02 lakhs

The turnover has increased massively by 56.10% this week.