US-Iran Ceasefire Crashes Global Oil Prices 16% : Will Nepal's Rs 202 Petrol Finally Drop?
On the night of April 7, 2026, President Donald Trump announced a two week ceasefire in the ongoing war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, a conflict that had been raging since late February and sent global energy markets into chaos. The deal was brokered by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and came less than two hours before Trump's 8 p.m. ET deadline. In exchange for the ceasefire, Iran agreed to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian military management.
The announcement triggered an immediate and historic crash in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate crude fell more than 16% to $94.47 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped more than 15% to $92.21 per barrel. Analysts called it the biggest single day free fall in oil prices since the 1991 Gulf War. The root cause of the crisis had been the near total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway handles about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade, and its effective closure represented the largest disruption in oil market history. Global stock markets also surged on the news, with Dow futures spiking 1,000 points and Asian markets jumping sharply.
Nepal's Condition and Impact
Nepal is a landlocked nation with no oil wells of its own, relying almost entirely on India for its fuel supplies, leaving it deeply exposed to international price shocks. The Middle East war hit the country hard. The Nepal Oil Corporation incurred losses of Rs 13.21 billion in just 15 days as international prices surged but domestic prices were not fully adjusted. The government was forced into emergency measures extending the weekend to both Saturday and Sunday to reduce fuel consumption, a historic step for Nepal where Saturday was previously the only day off for civil servants. The tourism sector was badly hit, with nearly 400 flights cancelled and a decline in visitor arrivals, threatening an industry that contributes around 7% to Nepal's GDP and employs over 1.19 million people. There are also serious fears about remittance flows, as Nepali workers in the Gulf region risk losing their jobs, which could strain foreign exchange reserves at the very time import bills are highest.
With the ceasefire now in place, fuel prices are expected to ease gradually as the Indian Oil Corporation revises rates every 15 days bringing downstream relief to Nepal. However, the damage to tourism, household budgets, and the national oil corporation's finances will take time to recover. Yesterday Nepal Government announces 50 percent waiver on customs duties imposed on petroleum products. But today crude oil prices drop more than 16% in international market and Nepal yet to response. Many expect that the price will drop sharply bringing the price below Rs. 180 but no official statement have given by the Nepal Oil Corporation about price decline.
The current price of Petrol in Kathmandu, Pokhara and Dipayal is Rs. 202 per Liter.
