Part 1: Rundown and Technical Analysis
The market operated for the 4 trading days this week. The market was closed on Monday for Buddha Jayanti. NEPSE has changed its trading days from the month of Jestha. Now onwards, the market is open from Monday to Friday and closed on Saturdays and Sundays every week.
The NEPSE index closed at 2235.09 this week after a loss of 115.33 points . The index had closed at 2,350.42 last week with a gain of 4.99% from the week before that.
This week, the index went as high as 2,350.43 and as low as 2,231.46, hence witnessing volatility of 118.97 points. In the previous week, the index had seen a volatility of 184.02 points.
Analysis of Trend
Trend analysis is a technical analysis method that helps to predict future movement based on the current ongoing trend data. Looking at the daily charts, the trend of the NEPSE index is still in a downtrend.
Candlestick Charting and Volume
On the weekly candlestick chart, this week's market movement has formed a bearish Marabozu candle. Last week's candle was a long bullish candle with small shadows on both sides.
The highest intraday loss was 84.90 points on Tuesday with a turnover of Rs 1.64 Arba.
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or index. Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.
The RSI reading on the daily timeframe is 35.69. Meanwhile, the RSI reading on the weekly chart is 40. No diversion has been seen in the RSI in relation to the index, thus invalidating any attempt toward the prediction of a reversal. Furthermore, the RSI readings in the daily and weekly charts also say very little other than the obvious fact that the sentiment has been pessimistic in the last few weeks.
On the other side of things, the MACD line is still negative, i.e. below zero in the daily timeframe, with the MACD reading at -54.26. The MACD line is below the signal line.
The index gained only one trading day on Wednesday. However, the Indexed followed the trend and continuously fall on other trading days.
It does look like the index has bounced back from the 0.786 Fibonacci level drawn between the two most-recent significant pivot extremes. Although some technical analysts put too much emphasis on these retracement zones, the analyst at hand prefers to adhere to this quote:
"Anticipating retracement levels can be somewhat hazardous, and the trade-off between the amount of retracement desired and what may actually occur is usually unanticipated. Thus, a rough estimate from previous retracements, support and resistance zones, and the location of the longer trend line is probably the best information for an estimate rather than the mechanical percentage numbers derived from various formulas."
2,150 to 2,120 zone may act as the nearest support.
Part 2: Insight into Important Data
More than 1.3 crores unit shares worth Rs. 5.2 Arba have been traded through 1.03 lakhs transactions this week. The current market capitalization of NEPSE stands at Rs. 3,179,494.95 million.
NEPSE index and Sub-indices performance: (Decline is based on previous week's close)
The NEPSE index declined by 4.91% this week. All the sectors lost this week.
Stocks with the highest Monthly Beta
The top 3 companies with the highest beta are Universal Power Company Limited (UPCL), National Hydro Power Company Limited (NHPC), Synergy Power Development Limited (SPDL) with 2.83, 2.62, and 2.52 respectively.
Top Ten Gainers of the week:
Samudayik Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited (SLBSL) is the top gainer this week. SLBSL closed at Rs. 1,469 with Rs. 139 (10.45%) increment.
All the analysis is done with the SS Pro Software. To know more about the software, click on the link below
Top Ten Losers of the week:
Suryodaya Womi Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited (SWMF) price has decreased by 24.76% and its LTP stands at Rs. 930.
Top Stocks by Turnover, Volume, and Number of Transaction:
Jalpa Samudayik Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited (JALPA) is the top traded company of the week. A total of Rs. 17.64 crores worth of JALPA shares were traded this week.
Top Buyers Brokers of the Week:
Naasa Securities Co.Limited (Broker No- 58) was the top buyer broker this week and it has bought stocks worth Rs. 36.38 crores.
Top 10 Bought Companies:
Top Seller Brokers of the Week:
Naasa Securities Co. Ltd (Broker No- 58) was the top seller broker for this week. The brokerage firm has sold stocks worth Rs. 36.62 crores.
Top 10 Sold Companies:
All the analysis is done with the SS Pro Software. To know more about the software, click on the link below.