Part 1: Rundown and Technical Analysis
The market operated for the entire 5 trading days this week. The market is closed on Fridays and Saturdays every week.
The NEPSE index closed at 2,356.17 this week after a gain of 30.72 points (1.32%). The index had closed at 2,325.45 last week with a loss of 3.72% from the week before that.
This week, the index went as high as 2,443.95 and as low as 2,331.51, hence witnessing volatility of 112.44 points. In the previous week, the index had seen a volatility of 150.42 points.
Analysis of Trend
Trend analysis is a method of Technical Analysis that helps in predicting the future movement that is based on the current ongoing trend data. Looking at the daily charts, the trend of the NEPSE index is in a downtrend.
Candlestick Charting and Volume
On the weekly candlestick chart, this week's market movement has formed an inverted hammer candle with a long upper shadow. Last week's candle was a long red candle with lower shadows.
The highest intraday gain was 95.52 points on Sunday with the highest turnover of Rs 2.53 Arba.
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or index. Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.
The RSI reading on the daily timeframe is 37.72. Meanwhile, the RSI reading on the weekly chart is 37.46. No diversion has been seen in the RSI in relation to the index, thus invalidating any attempt toward the prediction of a reversal. Furthermore, the RSI readings in the daily and weekly charts also say very little other than the obvious fact that the sentiment has been pessimistic in the last few weeks.
On the other side of things, the MACD line is still negative, i.e. below zero in the daily timeframe, with the MACD reading at -59.03. The MACD line is below the signal line.
The index gained only on the first trading day on Sunday. However, the Indexed followed the trend and continuously fall on other trading days.
It does look like the index has bounced back from the 0.786 Fibonacci level drawn between the two most-recent significant pivot extremes. Although some technical analysts put too much emphasis on these retracement zones, the analyst at hand prefers to adhere to this quote:
"Anticipating retracement levels can be somewhat hazardous, and the trade-off between the amount of retracement desired and what may actually occur is usually unanticipated. Thus, a rough estimate from previous retracements, support and resistance zones, and the location of the longer trend line is probably the best information for an estimate rather than the mechanical percentage numbers derived from various formulas."
2,250 to 2,280 zone may act as the nearest support.
Part 2: Insight into Important Data
More than 2.25 crores unit shares worth Rs. 8.205 Arba have been traded through 1.68 lakh transactions this week. The current market capitalization of NEPSE stands at Rs. 3,351,643.33 million.
NEPSE index and Sub-indices performance: (Increment based on previous week's close)
The NEPSE index increased by 1.32% this week. Most of the sectors gain this week except Life Insurance and Trading.
Stocks with the highest monthly Beta (Hydropower, Development Bank, Finance, Commercial Bank)
The top 3 companies with the highest beta are Samling Power Company Limited (SPC), Himalaya Urja Bikas Company Limited (HURJA), Himal Dolakha Hydropower Company Limited (HDHPC) with 2.36, 2.31, 2.13 respectively.
Top Ten Gainers of the week:
Jalpa Samudayik Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited (JALPA) is the top gainer this week. JALPA closed at Rs. 1,142.60 with Rs. 432.90 (61%) increment.
All the analysis is done with the SS Pro Software. To know more about the software, click on the link below
Top Ten Losers of the week:
NESDO Sambridha Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited (NESDO) price has decreased by 5.2% and its LTP stands at Rs. 145.
Top Stocks by Turnover, Volume, and Number of Transaction:
Arun Valley Hydropower Development Company Limited (AHPC) is the top traded company of the week. A total of Rs. 30.11 crores worth of AHPC shares were traded this week.
Top Buyers Brokers of the Week:
Online Securities Pvt.Ltd (Broker No- 49) was the top buyer broker this week and it has bought stocks worth Rs 54.26 crores.
Top 10 Bought Companies:
Top Seller Brokers of the Week:
Naasa Securities Co. Ltd (Broker No- 58) was the top seller broker for this week. The brokerage firm has sold stocks worth Rs 42.91 crores.
Top 10 Sold Companies:
All the analysis is done with the SS Pro Software. To know more about the software, click on the link below.