Last week before Dashain NESPE rises by 19.60 points; Need to wait till NEPSE moves above 20 EMA and 78.6% Fibonacci Level for bullish confirmation

Fri, Oct 4, 2019 8:08 PM on Latest, NEPSE News, Weekly Analysis,

This week NEPSE Index gained 19.6 Points (1.73%). The Index opened at 1129.80 points and closed at 1149.40 points. On Sunday the index was down by 4.66 points, on Monday index gained 10.42 points, on Tuesday also index gain 10.13 points to sit at 1145.69, on Wednesday index lost 4.98 points and on last trading day before Dashain index gained by 8.69 points. 

Candlestick pattern:

Three green and two red small body candlesticks was formed.

Exponential Moving Average:

We have used EMA's of 5 days' time period (blue line), 20 days' time period (red line). At present, NEPSE Index is above 5 days EMA but below 20 days EMA. Short-term averages respond quickly to changes in the price of the underlying, while long-term averages are slow to react.

Moving Average Convergence and Divergence:

MACD line (blue) and the signal line (red line) are in negative zone. MACD line rises above the signal line, this indicates a bullish signal, which suggests that the NEPSE index is likely to experience upward momentum.

Fibonacci retracement method:

NEPSE Index is trading below 78.6 % Fibonacci level. Trading below 61.8% indicates weight of bear is more than bull.

This week's market statistics:

Index Open-1129.80 points                Index closed-1149.40 points

Index High- 1149.70 points                Index low- 1121.09 points

Support and resistance level for next trading week according to Pivot Point.

Pivot Point- 1139 point

1st Resistance-1158 point                1st support-1130 point

2nd Resistance-1167 point               2nd support-1111 point

Conclusion: Need to wait till NEPSE Index moves above its 20 EMA and 78.6% of Fibonacci Level for bullish confirmation.

 

Weekly Market Summary of NEPSE

More than 43.77 lakhs unit shares of worth Rs 1.10 arba has been traded through 16.83 thousand transactions this week compared to 40.41 lakhs unit of shares of worth Rs 1 arba, last week. The current market capitalization of NEPSE stands at Rs. 1,460,182.88 Million.

  This week Last week % Change
Total Turnover (Rs.) 1,101,736,880.00 1,001,970,877.00 9.96%
Total Traded Shares 4,377,471.00 4,041,919.00 8.30%
Total No. of Transactions 16,839.00 23,829.00 -29.33%
Market Cap at (In million Rs) 1,460,182.88 1,435,318.77 1.73%
Floated Market Cap at (In million Rs) 527,768.17 518,861.01 1.72%
No of trading days 5 5  

The turnover has increased by 9.96% this week compared to last week whereas the total number of transaction decreased by 29.33%.

Sector-wise breakdown of the turnover of this week:

The commercial bank sector made 42% of the total turnover this week followed by promoter shares with 16% of the total turnover.

Sector This Week (Sept 29-Oct 3)
Turnover (Rs in Millions) Weightage
Commercial Banks 457.53 41.53%
Promotor Shares 171.96 15.61%
Manufacturing And Processing 92.75 8.42%
Microfinance 71.3 6.47%
Life Insurance 67.39 6.12%
Hydro Power 65.33 5.93%
Non Life Insurance 48.74 4.42%
Hotels 41.83 3.80%
Development Banks 35.73 3.24%
Finance 25.54 2.32%
Others 22.34 2.03%
Mutual Fund 1.29 0.12%

NEPSE index and Sub-indices performance: (Increment here is based on the previous week closed value)

The NEPSE index increased by 1.73%. Majority of the indices rises this week. Top gainer sector of this week is Hydropower Sector with the rise of 2.54%.

Top looser of the week is Hotels sector which decline by 1.10%.

Index This Week Last Week Point Change % Change Index
NEPSE 1,149.40 1,129.80 19.60 1.73%
Sensitive 251.97 247.32 4.65 1.88%
Float 85.01 83.57 1.44 1.72%
Sensitive Float 80.74 79.43 1.31 1.65%
Banking  1,056.54 1,036.77 19.77 1.91%
Development Bank 1,560.60 1,538.71 21.89 1.42%
Finance 570.83 562.96 7.87 1.40%
Hotels 1,844.31 1,864.85 -20.54 -1.10%
HydroPower 944.69 921.32 23.37 2.54%
Life Insu 5,053.87 4,992.43 61.44 1.23%
Manu. And Processing 2,443.62 2,413.55 30.07 1.25%
Microfinance 1,476.20 1,449.12 27.08 1.87%
Mutual Fund 9.39 9.36 0.03 0.32%
Non Life Insu 4,256.07 4,213.44 42.63 1.01%
Others 652.34 640.41 11.93 1.86%

Stock with the highest monthly Beta value from the Banking &Finance Sector

The table below shows the list:

SN Stock Symbol LTP Monthly Beta Sector
1 SAPDBL 130 4.38 Development Bank
2 TMDBL 151 3.57 Development Bank
3 GLBSL 437 3.41 Microfinance
4 KADBL 171 2.78 Development Bank
5 SPARS 545 2.33 Microfinance
6 NNLB 435 2.1 Microfinance
7 SLBSL 680 2.02 Microfinance
8 MSMBS 469 1.99 Microfinance
9 MSLB 954 1.98 Microfinance
10 GILB 710 1.88 Microfinance

Saptakoshi Development Bank Limited (SAPDBL) has the highest monthly Beta value of 4.38 followed by Tinau Mission Development Bank (TMDBL) with 3.57 beta value.

All the analysis are done with the SS Pro Software. To know more about the software click on the link below

SS Pro

Top Ten Gainers of the week:  

Unilever Nepal Limited (UNL) is the top gainer of the week. UNL closed at Rs 20,185 with Rs 1,835 (10%) increment.

S.N. Symbol Open Price (Rs.) Closing Price (Rs.) Change (Rs.) Change (%)
1 UNL 18,350.00 20,185.00 1,835.00 10
2 UNHPL 51 56 5 9.8
3 CEFL 104 112 8 7.69
4 SHPC 183 197 14 7.65
5 JOSHI 54 58 4 7.41
6 CZBILP 140 150 10 7.14
7 UFL 173 185 12 6.94
8 SPDL 72 77 5 6.94
9 BOKLPO 150 160 10 6.67
10 PICL 422 450 28 6.64

Top Ten Losers of the week:

Multipurpose Finance Limited (MPFL) price has decreased by 5.83% and its LTP stands at Rs 97.

S.N. Symbol Open Price (Rs.) Closing Price (Rs.) Change (Rs.) Change (%)
1 MPFL 103 97 -6 -5.83
2 HURJA 112 106 -6 -5.36
3 SHIVM 542 513 -29 -5.35
4 OHL 518 494 -24 -4.63
5 LEMF 6.84 6.58 -0.26 -3.8
6 UMHL 105 102 -3 -2.86
7 MLBBL 450 438 -12 -2.67
8 NLG 578 563 -15 -2.6
9 CMF1 9.29 9.05 -0.24 -2.58
10 CLBSL 476 466 -10 -2.1

Top Stocks by Turnover and Number of Transaction:

Shivam Cements Limited (SHIVM) has the highest turnover for the week. More than Rs 7.85 crore worth of SHIVM shares were traded this week.

S.N. Top Turnover Top No of Transaction
Symbol Turnover (Rs.) Symbol Trans (No)
1 SHIVM 78,537,416 SHIVM 1,093
2 NBBPO 70,125,000 RHPL 1,091
3 PRVU 65,962,105 SJCL 974
4 SBL 45,303,209 UPPER 552
5 BOKLPO 42,864,160 SBL 519
6 SANIMA 40,021,162 SANIMA 492
7 NIBPO 34,180,200 BOKL 461
8 SHL 33,746,789 NLIC 399
9 NLIC 33,171,986 PRVU 357
10 BOKL 32,978,047 MEGA 315

Top Buyers Brokers of the Week:

Primo Securities Pvt. Limited  (Broker No- 16) was the top Buyer broker of this week and it has bought stocks of worth Rs 6.52 crores.

S.N. Broker No. Broker Name Buy Amount (Rs.)
1 16 Primo Securities Pvt. Limited 65,285,244.00
2 49 Online Securities Pvt.Ltd 61,439,663.00
3 45 Imperial Securities Co .Pvt.Limited 60,868,180.00
4 25 Sweta Securities Pvt. Limited 56,475,295.00
5 17 ABC Securities Pvt. Limited 56,474,843.23
6 44 Dynamic Money Managers Securities 50,642,228.00
7 29 Trishul Securities And Investment 47,822,011.00
8 32 Premier Securites Company Limited 44,977,830.00
9 14 Nepal Stock House Pvt. Limited 43,957,813.00
10 39 Sumeru Securities Pvt.Limited 40,267,593.00

Top Seller Broker of the Week:

Agrawal Securities Pvt. Limited. (Broker No- 6) is the top seller broker for this week. The brokerage firm has sold stocks of worth Rs 8.30 crores.

S.N. Broker No. Broker Name Sell Amount (Rs.)
1 6 Agrawal Securities Pvt. Limited 83,091,669.00
2 45 Imperial Securities Co .Pvt.Limited 72,426,899.00
3 42 Sani Securities Company Limited 59,773,950.40
4 25 Sweta Securities Pvt. Limited 54,997,393.00
5 48 Trishakti Securities Public Limited 52,131,424.00
6 29 Trishul Securities And Investment 44,754,986.00
7 17 ABC Securities Pvt. Limited 42,284,568.23
8 44 Dynamic Money Managers Securities 42,187,941.00
9 32 Premier Securites Company Limited 38,422,219.40
10 58 Naasa Securities Co. Ltd. 35,942,715.00

Top 10 Market Capitalization Companies:

S. No. Symbol Capitalization (Rs. In Million)
1 NTC 95550
2 NABIL 69246.91
3 NIB 57141.68
4 SCB 46466.3
5 EBL 46154.47
6 HBL 43112.49
7 NLIC 42320.44
8 NICA 37801.66
9 ADBL 37504.6
10 NMB 36741.38

All the analysis are done with the SS Pro Software. To know more about the software click on the link below