India Begins Counting Over 640 Million Votes in Election Expected to Secure Modi's Third Term

India commenced the counting of over 640 million votes on Tuesday, following the conclusion of the world’s largest democratic exercise. This six-week election, seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decade-long leadership, is widely anticipated to secure him a third term, a feat achieved only once before by Jawaharlal Nehru. Exit polls have forecasted a comfortable victory for Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies, surpassing the opposition alliance led by the Congress party and its campaign leader, Rahul Gandhi. Despite the mixed accuracy of past exit polls, early leads from the 543 constituencies will provide an indication of the final outcome.

The election saw a turnout of approximately 66% among nearly 970 million eligible voters, amidst extreme heat conditions with temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius in parts of the country. Rajiv Kumar, Chief Election Commissioner, acknowledged the challenging weather, suggesting that future elections should conclude earlier to avoid such conditions. As vote counting began, BJP workers performed Hindu rituals outside their New Delhi office, while Congress supporters remained optimistic, chanting slogans in support of Gandhi.

Modi’s tenure has significantly altered India’s political landscape, with his popularity often eclipsing that of the BJP itself. His presidential-style campaign has centralized his role, diminishing the prominence of local politicians. Supporters credit Modi with elevating India’s global standing and advancing its economy to the fifth-largest in the world through pro-business policies. However, critics argue that his Hindu-first politics have fostered intolerance and division, particularly affecting the Muslim minority. Additionally, while the economy has grown, it has also become more unequal, with high youth unemployment and a concentration of wealth among a small elite.

The opposition, led by the INDIA alliance, has targeted Modi’s economic record and his divisive politics, focusing on issues like joblessness, inflation, and inequality. However, the alliance faces internal challenges, including ideological differences and defections. Accusations of politically motivated raids and arrests against opposition leaders have further complicated their campaign. Despite these challenges, another victory for Modi would reinforce his status as one of India’s most influential leaders, following the BJP’s significant win in 2019, where they secured 303 parliamentary seats.