China’s Trade Soars in Early 2026, Defying Forecasts

China’s trade jumped by 21.8 percent in the first two months of 2026, official data revealed Tuesday, far exceeding economist expectations of 7.2 percent. The increase was driven by strong sales to markets outside the United States, offsetting a decline in shipments to Washington amid ongoing trade tensions.

The surge provides a lifeline for the world’s second-largest economy, where domestic consumer activity has remained sluggish since the pandemic. Exports of automobiles, clothing, and household appliances contributed significantly to the growth.

“Exports are likely to remain robust given the recent decline in US tariffs and strong demand for semiconductors,” said Zichun Huang of Capital Economics.

Imports rose 19.8 percent in January-February, nearly triple the 7 percent forecasted by economists, signaling a rebound in domestic demand. Among the key imports, oil shipments jumped 16 percent, reflecting rising global energy prices amid the US-Israel conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted the crucial Strait of Hormuz, a major oil transit route.

The recent surge in consumer prices, the fastest in three years, adds urgency to China’s import needs, even as global oil costs remain elevated.

Exports to the United States fell 11 percent to $67.24 billion in the first two months of the year, down from $75.56 billion last year, as the Trump administration continues its tariff campaign. Despite this, exports to the European Union rose 27.8 percent, and shipments to ASEAN climbed 29.2 percent.

Economists warn that the Middle East conflict could further increase China’s oil import bill, even as overall import volumes face pressure.

China’s growing trade surplus has drawn calls from international trading partners to reduce imbalances, which affect local competition. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao emphasized the need for balance at a press event during the annual “Two Sessions” political meeting in Beijing:

“Exports and imports are like the two wheels of a vehicle. If they are balanced, the vehicle runs smoothly and goes further.”

Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, noted that strong export performance combined with a lower official growth target “suggests that China is unlikely to launch stimulus any time soon.”

The trade data arrives as Chinese leaders convene for their closely watched annual political meeting, during which the government set its lowest economic growth target in decades. The figures offer a boost to policymakers, even as domestic spending remains weak and geopolitical uncertainties, including the US-Israel conflict, threaten to disrupt energy supplies.