Monsoon Arrival in Nepal and Potential Impact for this Year

According to the average date, today is the day when monsoon starts, when does monsoon enter Nepal?

Today marks the average date for the onset of monsoon in Nepal. However, it's important to note that the monsoon does not always begin precisely on this day. Meteorologists suggest that the monsoon may arrive a few days earlier or later than the average date.

This year, the monsoon is expected to arrive in Nepal a few days later than the average date. It is anticipated that the monsoon will enter Nepal within the next one or two days.

The current monsoon has already reached the southeastern part of India through Bhutan and Bangladesh. It typically takes around 24 to 48 hours for the monsoon to reach Nepal from that region.

According to the Department of Meteorology, this year's monsoon is forecasted to bring less rainfall, with a 35 to 55 percent chance of below-average rainfall. Additionally, there is a 35 to 65 percent probability of above-average maximum temperatures across the country.

The department clarifies that the possibility of below-average rainfall during the four-month monsoon season, from May 18 to October 13, exists. However, the probability of below-average rainfall varies from place to place.

The Department of Meteorology states that most parts of Sudurpaschim, Karnali, Lumbini, and Gandaki provinces, along with the southeastern parts of Kosi province, have a 45 to 55 percent chance of below-average rainfall. Meanwhile, there is a 35 to 45 percent chance of normal rainfall in those areas.

It is estimated that 1.25 million people will be affected by the monsoon this year, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA). Specifically, 311,143 people in the Koshi province, 403,180 in the Madhesh province, 96,858 in the Bagmati province, 69,744 in the Gandaki province, 199,862 in the Lumbini province, 35,333 in the Karnali province, and 47,060 in the Sudurpaschim province are expected to be affected.

Certain regions in Nepal, including Ilam, Panchthar, Dhankuta, Terhathum, Okhaldhunga, Lalitpur, Nawakot, Dhading, Tanahu, Syangja, Palpa, Gulmi, Arghakhanchi, Baglung, Pyuthan, Rolpa, Rukum West, Dailekh, Achham, and Baitadi, have been identified as areas prone to landslides. Historical data has revealed their vulnerability to landslide risks.

Likewise, Jhapa, Morang, Sunsari, Saptari, Siraha, Dhanusa, Mahottari, Sarlahi, Rautahat, Bara, Parsa, Chitwan, Nawalparasi, Rupandehi, Kapilvastu, Dang, Banke, Bardia, Surkhet, Kailali, and Kanchanpur are regions susceptible to the impacts of floods.

The Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Executive Committee has approved the Monsoon Preparedness and Response National Action Plan-2080. To address these risks, measures are being taken, such as the installation of intelligent sirens and the deployment of rescue ambulances.

On average, the monsoon season in Nepal concludes on October 2.