Five takeaways from market in last two weeks

Market has its own way. The best example for this statement is market’s movement in last two weeks. Let us what are the five major takeaways:

History has been evident for an uptrend in the month of April: As per SS Pro, based on the performance of NEPSE since 2011, NEPSE has closed higher in 66.7% of April months Moreover, April is the month when NEPSE has gained the most and its average gain is at around 7.58%. Besides, NEPSE Index has closed higher in 87.5 % of July months which is the highest among all twelve months. If NEPSE follows the same historical trend, then it will be wise of investors to redesign their portfolio, buying in the month of April to Many and selling in July.

Market has its own movement: In the last few months, we came across a number of incidents in stock market. We attributed a number of reasons for the decline in market. Some of us even joined the protest outside NEPSE just for the sake of its rise. At the end of the day, market needed no reason except the mass optimism to climb the 1200 benchmark. The uptrend and downtrend depend upon the overall cycle of the market rather than the wish and demand of a certain groups. Here is a sarcastic take on types of Nepalese investors:

Right and bonus might not be the only reasons to bring in a bull: The last bull in Nepalese stock market was solely based on right and bonus shares announced by companies in order to meet the paid up capital. The announcement of such right and bonus shares were the major factors that affected the buy and sell decisions of investors. The same may not be applied in case of the upcoming uptrend. Meaning investors don’t have a reason as announcement of bonus and right shares to invest in secondary market. Investors should rather concentrate on return and risk while investing.        

NEPSE can jump from one index to another in just one blink: By the last trading day in 2075, the market was at the index of 1184. However, within just 15 days the market jumped to an index of around 1310, which is almost near to 1330 levels. Although the downtrend was slow and long lasting that it constantly brought so much of agony, the uptrend market might take a quick leap. Here is another example of how index jumps in a short span:     

Banking index usually initiates an uptrend: Although a confirmation of bull market cannot be given in the initial phase, banking index has been taken as the sector that confirms the bull market. Even in the last two weeks, banking index initiated the uptrend with the topmost gains. In particular, commercial banks were seen to have gained a lot. However, this does not mean there will be no sector shift in the upcoming days.

What are your opinions about the market? Are you optimistic or do you think this is just a minor uptrend?