Asian Development Bank Forecasts 3.9 Percent Growth for Nepal in 2026

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected that Nepal’s economic growth will slow down to 3.9 percent in the year 2026. According to the bank, this slowdown is part of a broader trend affecting the entire Asia Pacific region. Looking at the surrounding years, the ADB stated that Nepal's economic growth was  4.4 percent in 2025 and it will be 4.5 percent in 2027.

These projections are significantly lower than the targets set by the Nepal government. For the upcoming fiscal year, the central bank of Nepal NRB has set an ambitious goal of 7 percent economic growth on recently issued monetary policy and previous government had originally targeted a 6 percent growth rate for the current fiscal year, but it is estimated that the actual growth is around 3.85%.

The ADB explained that the expected slowdown across the Asia and Pacific regions is being driven by global economic pressures, including rising inflation (the increasing cost of goods), supply chain disruptions, and ongoing global tensions. Despite these headwinds, the overall economic growth for the South Asian region as a whole is estimated to reach 6 percent in 2026.

Within South Asia, India is expected to see the strongest economic growth in 2026 at 6.6 percent, followed closely by Bhutan at 6.5 percent. Sri Lanka’s growth is projected at 4 percent, while both Bangladesh and Pakistan are expected to experience a 3.7 percent growth rate. Afghanistan is forecast to grow by 2.3 percent, and the Maldives is projected to have the lowest growth in the region at just 1 percent. Outside of South Asia, the ADB estimated that China's economy will grow by 4.6 percent in 2026.