IMF Projects Nepal’s Economic Growth at 3.6% in 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Nepal’s economic growth at 3.6% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027, according to its latest World Economic Outlook released Tuesday. Nepal’s economy is estimated to have grown by 4.4% in 2025.

The projections indicate that Nepal’s economic growth will remain below 4% over the next two years, although a slight improvement is expected in 2027.

The IMF has projected consumer inflation in Nepal at 3.1% in 2026, down from an estimated 4.1% in 2025, before rising to 5.8% in 2027.

The Fund warned that rising international oil prices and disruptions to energy supplies could pose significant risks to Nepal, given its dependence on imported fuel and other goods. The ongoing Middle East conflict has increased uncertainty in global energy markets.

The IMF has projected global economic growth at 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.5% in 2025, before recovering to 3.4% in 2027.

Despite geopolitical tensions and trade risks, investment in artificial intelligence (AI), technological development and economic adaptation have supported global activity. However, the benefits of AI investment are not being shared equally across economies.

The US economy is projected to grow 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, while India is expected to expand by 7% in both years. China’s growth is projected at 4.5% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.

The IMF has also raised its 2026 eurozone growth forecast to 1.1% from 0.9%, supported by AI investment, industrial supply chains and higher defense spending.

The Fund cautioned that an escalation of the Middle East conflict that pushes crude oil prices toward US$130 per barrel could place additional pressure on global economic growth.